Game-by-game baseball models
Rebuilt a 604-line MLB run-expectancy script into a tested R pipeline, then ran a pre-registered study of which look-back window to trust for hitters, starters and bullpens; the model it produced called 58.0% of 12,148 games from 2021 to 2025 at first pitch, beating a run-differential model in all five seasons. Then built a plate-appearance matchup model (log5 batter-pitcher rates, park, times through the order, bullpen) and a Monte Carlo game simulator; with the starter guessed from the rotation, its 955 picks at the opening betting line from 2023 to 2025 gained 0.7 points of closing-line value each, about twice what betting every home team drew. Separately scored 0.726 AUC on the private test set of Nick Wan's batted-ball Kaggle competition.