Game-by-game baseball models
Rebuilt a 604-line MLB run-expectancy script into a tested R pipeline, then ran a pre-registered study of which look-back window to trust for hitters, starters and bullpens; the model it produced called 58.0% of 12,148 games from 2021 to 2025 at first pitch, beating a run-differential model in all five seasons. Then built a plate-appearance matchup model (log5 batter-pitcher rates, park, times through the order, bullpen) and a Monte Carlo game simulator; using MLB's listed starters, its 558 picks at the opening betting line from 2023 to 2025 gained 2.0 points of closing-line value each, about five times what betting every home team drew, and 1.5 where the listed starters were the ones the rotation predicted. Separately scored 0.726 AUC on the private test set of Nick Wan's batted-ball Kaggle competition.